It’s down to three

With the season drawing to a close, Sebastian Hassett believes the list of Premiership contenders has been narrowed down to an elite trio.

The nature of the AFL finals system means that if you’re in the top eight, you have a theoretical chance of winning the flag. Yes, in theory, you’re a chance. But rarely will a team from the lower reaches of the eight have a genuine crack at a premiership.

In the history of the final eight system, first adopted in 1994, only one team has won the flag from outside the top four and only twice has there been a team from outside the four even compete in the Grand Final.

Mark my words, the same will apply in 2005. It’s no coincidence that the best teams finish on top of the ladder, and even in this topsy-turvy season, the best three teams will occupy the top three spots by Round 22.

West Coast, Adelaide or St Kilda. One of these three teams will walk away with September glory. The remaining four games of the home and away season might even trim that number back to two.

While I don’t doubt that Sydney, the Kangaroos and Geelong all have talent to burn in comparison to most clubs, they simply don’t have that Premiership edge needed to claim the flag.

Sydney lack the mental strength away from home to challenge for top honours, while the Roos simply don’t posses the class factor – an essential ingredient to the premiership cake.

A month ago, Geelong would have rounded off a neat little quartet with the three above-mentioned contenders. But after spending so long in the top four this year, they have fallen away when the top clubs have shifted into top gear. Friday night’s showdown with the Saints might be the last chance the Cats get at staking a claim.

So much for the pretenders, then. They’re battling for the minor places. It’s only the Premiership that we’re interested in – and it’s also what the Eagles have been interested in since the Swans eliminated them from the finals on a murky night at Stadium Australia last year.

They’ve been a cut above the competition all season, and have marched from triumph to triumph, accumulating just two losses over the course of 18 rounds. They have been impenetrable at home and incredibly stoic when on the road. It goes without saying that they’re the favourites, but there’s still a feeling that they might get swamped on the MCG if they play a team who can match them in a shootout.

No doubt about it, the team who is capable of catching the Westerners in September is St Kilda. The average punter on the street knows that deep down, the Saints have what it takes to win the flag if they play to their potential. Some might argue that St Kilda at their best would give Brisbane’s treble winning unit a run for their money.

Certainly, since their baffling loss to Essendon when they slumped to 6-7, the Saints have been marching. Five straight wins and the recovery of a near-full compliment of players has seen them rocket to third on the table and within striking distance of second. Without question, they’re Victoria’s best – and probably only – chance of a flag.

Finally, there’s Adelaide, a team who by all rights should be scrapping with Carlton and Hawthorn for priority picks. A cobbled together bunch of no-names and misfits has somehow been mobilised into the hardest running and most physically intense team in the competition.

Neil Craig has pulled something of a coaching masterstroke, and rest assured, it’s no fluke. ‘The Scientist’ has a strong background in working with high-performance institutions and athletes, and has cultivated a team ethic of selflessness and hard labour to produce results. Indeed, the Crows’ performances in 2005 have reflected exactly this.

Are they capable of winning the flag? Probably not in the same vein that West Coast or St Kilda are, but they still pose a massive threat due to their ability to find ways to win. They’re likely to face the Saints in the first week of the finals, and probably at home. While still only a hypothetical, critics have pencilled it in as the game that will shape the finals series more than any other.

The remaining four matches of the season could see all sorts of things happen, but you're unlikely to see any of these three teams slip out of contention.

They’re the pick of the crop for this season, but who will be the one to bloom in late September? I’m starting to think that we might have had it right in the pre-season.

Unbeaten at the MCG in over a year, the Saints look ready.

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