Can the Saints weather a triple-blow?

St Kilda enters season 2006 as rightful flag favourites, but Sebastian Hassett wonders whether they can overcome the loss of three key players.

THE WORD on the street is virtually undisputed. There’s no sympathy or emotion involved as there once might have been with this club. St Kilda has the best team in the AFL.

Actually, modify that to ‘best list’. The best team of the competition wins the flag; the best list is merely a token appreciation of how good a team is on paper, not on the park.

Herein lies the problem for St Kilda. Having announced themselves as the league’s most prominent post-Brisbane force, their list is now forced to deal with the problem of losing three vital players.

For an idea of how much Aussie Jones, Luke Penny and Brent Guerra meant to Moorabbin, look at the Saints’ 10-game winning streak in early 2004 and how each formed a key component in the team’s most inspiring period in over a decade.

Now, they are gone. Two have prematurely retired and another will be plotting his future in brown and gold.

Unquestionably, the biggest loss is Jones. His run, drive, determination and sheer class will leave a gaping hole for the Saints.

Just how they plan to fill his presence is highly questionable. Running defenders are everywhere – Aaron Fiora, Matthew Ferguson and Jason Gram are all on offer for coach Grant Thomas, but none seem adequate. Of the others, Raphael Clarke is being groomed as a versatile tall, Brendan Goddard as a sturdy midfielder and Leigh Montagna as a speedy winger.

What Jones offered the Saints, more than anything else, was unparalleled vision. Let’s paint the picture.

More often than not, he’d receive the ball in the defensive 50. Looking up, he’d see a logjam of players. No problem – further up field, some 60 metres away, was Nick Riewoldt, Aaron Hamill, Fraser Gehrig or Justin Koschitzke.

The amount of times he’d hit one of those four on the chest is countless. Rapidly turning a defensive ball into a scoring opportunity was Jones’s forte, and he did it better than anybody.

After entering the league with a bang, making the All-Australian half-forward line in just his third year of senior football, he veered slightly off course. His resurrection went unnoticed by many – a return to the All-Australian side in 2004 marked the pinnacle of a career which had fewer blips than people seem to think. Barely 12 months later, that career is over.

Another hole in the back line belongs to Luke Penny, who, despite missing much of 2005, was seen as a key player in the Saints’ future plans. As a key position defender with plenty of strength and guile, Penny was carving out a niche as a solid full back, particularly after an impressive 2004.

His absence this year was offset by the rise of Matt Maguire and Sam Fisher, while Max Hudghton was the league’s best defender until his season ended in Round 17. But none of them conclusively fitted the bill in terms of a Denis Pagan ‘gorilla’ – precisely the role for Penny.

His decision to reject St Kilda’s rehabilitation terms is baffling, to say the least. Rumour from the club’s physiotherapy department is that his knee injury was nowhere near as bad as Penny himself believes, and that several other players had fully recovered from much worse injuries.

St Kilda have not yet officially delisted Penny; neither should they. Clearly, he is not in a fit mental state to continue for the time being, but, at 24, is still young enough to rediscover the hunger. Many players become disillusioned with the game, and just need some time away to refresh.

The wisest thing the club can do is to tell him to get away from football and go overseas for six months. If he’s not ready to have another go after that time, then give him the chop. Rushing these decisions will have negative consequences for everyone involved.

The final departure is perhaps the most mystifying, largely because it was the club’s own choice.

St Kilda picked up Brent Guerra from Port Adelaide two years ago at the ripe old age of 21. Yes, despite the looks, he’s just a kid. His first season at the club had tongues wagging; bags of goals were coming from all directions and his ability to physically impose himself was undeniable.

2005 wasn’t as eye-catching, but he still showed signs that he could be a seriously damaging player when fully fit. His four-goal, 19-possesion performance against Collingwood at the tail end of the season should have been enough to convince Thomas to keep him. It wasn’t. How he was cut before Mark McGough or Allan Murray – who share the dubious claim to fame of having played a solitary memorable game in wet conditions at the MCG some years ago – is anyone’s guess. One has to suspect not all is well between club and the player. The sceptics suggested Guerra was a bit of a party boy; in Thomas’s unyielding desire to project a positive image, the ‘man-child’ looks to have become a scapegoat. Overall, it’s not as if St Kilda can’t live without these three. They will make another finals series in 2006 but they’ll need more than a pinch of luck if they’re going to grab to a flag.

Down but not out: Explosive Saint Brent Guerra has been thrown a lifeline by Alistair Clarkson's Hawks.

With the likes of Robert Harvey, Stephen Powell, Justin Peckett, Fraser Gehrig and Andrew Thompson all entering their final years, it’s a critical juncture for St Kilda.

Soon, they will lose the above players. On Mick Malthouse’s premiership clock, the Saints have passed the 11 o’clock and are nearing high noon. Having just lost three players potentially crucial to premiership success, that job just became a hell of a lot harder.

If Grant Thomas can pull this one off, he will have well and truly earned the respect of the football world.

But the clock is ticking.

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