Gate Ajar for Aussie

Cadel Evan’s chances in this year’s Tour de France have taken another interesting turn after last night’s 16th stage from Le Bourg-d'Oisans to La Toussuire.

In perhaps the most surprising run of events in this years Tour, the overall leader - American Floyd Landis - cracked on the final climb approaching the end of the stage and fell from first to eleventh in the standings.

Landis was heavily favoured to take the maillot jaune (yellow jersey) all the way to Paris on Sunday, primarily because of his ability in the individual time trial (penultimate stage) and his ultimate position that comes with the luxury of not having to attack on the treacherous mountain stages.

Michael Rasmussen was the eventual winner of the stage, pulling off a brave breakaway move only ten kilometres into the 182 kilometre stage. Rasmussen was able to stay ahead of the peloton, which was significantly thinned out by the finish line.

A tactical fourth place finish strengthened Australia’s hopes of a podium finish for Cadel Evans, who has jumped two places in the overall standings to fifth and only +2.56 minutes behind new leader Oscar Pereiro.

However, the story of the day was certainly Landis, who spoke after the race declaring that his bad day had come at the most crucial moment. Effectively, Landis has almost certainly relinquished any real chance of winning the race. He lost +10.04 minutes on the stage and now sits +8.08 minutes behind the leader.

The twist of fortune has aided Cadel Evan’s pursuit for glory, and paved the way for a decisive stage 17, which is the longest Alpine stage in this year’s race. The 200.4km stage will be just as punishing and crucial as its precursor.

In a significant moment of humility, cycling legend Lance Armstrong fell victim to the final ascent in stage 17 in year 2000 when he cracked on the vicious climb up Col de Joux-Plane.

The key for Evans, and other challengers for the yellow jersey, will be to attack Oscar Pereiro early and force him to react in the hope that they will wear him down before the final ascent.

After 74 hours of riding so far, the remaining riders will have to dig deep in the scorching French heat as this has certainly been the most difficult Tour to predict since Lance Armstrong’s reign.

If Cadel Evans can pull out something special in stage 17, there is no reason why he can’t finish historically on the cérémonie protocolaire (podium ceremony).

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