AFL Season Prediction

Flag fancies West Coast and St Kilda kick off the AFL season tonight at Subiaco Oval after six months of rest and preparation.

Both clubs came devastatingly close to premiership glory last season, only to be sent packing by eventual winner, Sydney. Both of these talent laden clubs have fared poorly throughout the pre-season competition but will be looking to, once again, cement a spot in the top four come September.

As is customary, at the commencement of each season, fans, clubs and the media throw up questions and predictions. Some predictions are unrealistic, others are in hope and some are near certainties.

Who would have thought at the beginning of last season that the Swans would surpass favourites in the Eagles, Saints and even the ever-present prowess of the Brisbane Lions to claim the Holy Grail?

This year, like last season, there is no clear flag favourite. Whilst four or five clubs appear in contention not one has a stranglehold on the remaining fifteen clubs, unlike the Brisbane dynasty of 2001-2003.

West Coast, St Kilda, Adelaide and pre-season premiers Geelong are all vying for premiership favouritism. Although they broke a 72-year-drought last year, Sydney remains least likely to secure back-to-back flags. Their victory was honourable, gritty and won through sheer dedication, but over the summer the coaching panels of the other fifteen clubs would have devised ways to contain and shut down the Swans, paving way for the classier sides to progress further in September.

The fight for a top eight finish will be tight and tough. Several clubs are a chance to play finals if injuries and form fall their way. Last year it came down to an epic last round for the final eight to be finalised. Melbourne’s win left the fast-finishing Western Bulldogs ruing missed chances earlier in the year, while 2004 premiers Port Adelaide dealt with Fremantle to take their place in the September action.

It appears the race for the eight will, again, be a titanic battle. Although with out the luxury of tall key position players, the Bulldogs have a speedy midfield brigade, who could again exploit slower outfits and play exciting, free-flowing football. Adam Cooney could well become one of the elite if he dominates the centre clearances and races forward to snatch a few handy goals in each match.

Fremantle, after two seasons in limbo, will try to enforce themselves on the competition with fast flowing football in space with tougher play when in tight. The Dockers boast a talented midfield and with a much-improved Aaron Sandilands slotting the ball down a fit Paul Hasleby and co, they will be hard to contain, especially when utilising the vast space of Subiaco oval.

Along with the Bulldogs and Fremantle, the Neale Daniher lead Melbourne Demons will be aiming for a top eight finish. When on song the Demons are a delicious prospect. They can be high scoring and have the luxury of a dynamic forward line structure.

Russell Robertson, unlucky not to be included in the All-Australian team last season, is an aerial genius and in tandem with the zippy Aaron Davey and skipper David Neitz can cause a headache for most back lines. Their best is very good, but their worst is disgraceful. When challenged the Demons seem to lose focus and much has been made of their ‘softness’.

These three sides have enormous potential. All have the ability to produce spine tingling performances, but to stamp their authority on the league much push aside any psychological factors and fight hard when pressured.

The ‘Big four’- Carlton, Collingwood, Essendon and Richmond seem destined to spend the year on the fringes or at the foot of the ladder.

Carlton’s proud history has taken a turn for the worst, still ruing salary cap issues that cost them a handful of talented teens and struggling to rebuild from a massive debt that has left the club in near financial ruin.

Much to coach Dennis Pagan’s delight the club was able to participate in the 2005 National draft’s early rounds and plucked ball magnet Marc Murphy at number one. He, along with Jarrad Waite and the erratic Brendan Fevola are the small rays of the light for the old dark navy’s in this their hardest rebuilding process ever.

The Blues will continue to lay in the doldrums in season 2006, but they must take great delight in the fact that their oldest rivals are more than likely going to keep them company this year. Hawthorn are re-building after taking a dozen teenage prodigies over the last two seasons, Richmond will again be hovering on the fringes of the eight, but lack the required clientele to become a force and although they believe the finals are obtainable the Magpies will again miss the ship.

They have a talented list but rely too heavily on the overrated Anthony Rocca and Chris Tarrant seems unable to use the immense pressure he is put under to his advantage.

The only big Victorian club that could bounce back is Essendon. Under super coach Kevin Sheedy anything is possible and the new ‘baby’ Bombers could be the surprise packet of the year. With superstars in Matthew Lloyd, James Hird and Dustin Fletcher guiding the likes of Jason Laycock, Brent Stanton and Kepler Bradley the Bombers have the could push aside a more fancied finals contender with tough, hard football.

It is difficult to predict where the Kangaroos will fall. Their spirit will help them through many tough matches, but their quick fix job could unravel before their eyes. The recruitment of Jon Hay and Brady Rawlings were done in hope of strengthening their push for the top four. Spirit is all the Roos have at present; they’ve recruited older players and have only a handful of youngsters coming through the ranks.

There will be surprises, there will be disappointments, there will be action and there will be elation. Predictions could be spot on, they could be completely off target, but what ever way the season falls making predictions is always a joyous way to kick start another fantastic season of our great game.

Bring it on.

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