AFL Round One Preview

FOR many, 2006 is the year that 2005 should have been.

Nobody expected Adelaide to come from the clouds; nobody expected Sydney to win it, or St Kilda to fall short.

Experts were made to look like fools as the form guide failed to hold sway. This year, hopefully, tipping might be made that little bit easier for all of us - especially those of us in the SportsAustralia.com tipping competition.

Needless to say, friendships were strained and there were even reports of colleagues 'coming to blows' over the late submissions of tips. One reporter even moved interstate as a result. Ouch.

Still, at least this column has made it back - and thank goodness for that. I've really enjoyed the amount of hate mail bombarding SA's headquarters, most of which could be attributed to this column's 'bet of the week'. Apparently, I owe people some good tips this year.

Talk about pressure. But don't worry folks, I've had a good pre-season, and I'm ready to go for Round 1.

Bet of the week: West Coast by over 12.5 points - $1.85Although the Saints are probably a better team on paper, and have a distinct superiority over the Eagles in the key position posts, West Coast will use their running game to edge well clear of the two-goal start offered here.

THURSDAY NIGHT

West Coast vs St Kilda
Subiaco Oval, Perth
5:45pm (WA), 8:15pm (SA), 8:45pm (EDT)

Unquestionably, these are two of the teams most capable of lifting the premiership cup in 2005, and the AFL knew exactly what would happen when they paired these two together to open the season.

Expect nothing less than fireworks all over the park, especially if last year's explosive season opener is a yardstick for intensity. Watch for the Eagles to win the midfield, where they can use their pace to slice through the Saints and keep the ball away from the visitor's key talls.

West Coast by 24 points.

FRIDAY NIGHT

Western Bulldogs vs Richmond
Telstra Dome, Melbourne
4:40pm (WA), 7:10pm (SA), 7:40pm (EDT)

The Western Bulldogs had been barking loudly over the off-season - until Luke Darcy did his knee and Will Minson had surgery on his hand, leaving the Rodney Eade's team devoid of rucking power.

That is unless you include Peter Street, who despite marked improvement last year, is no match for the Tigers tall timber. The Dogs might have to call upon Wayde Skipper to help out, but again, the runners will be the key. Fortunately, at ground level, they've got the Tigers covered.

Western Bulldogs by 11 points.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

Geelong vs Brisbane Lions
Skilled Stadium, Geelong
11:10am (WA), 1:10pm (QLD), 1:40pm (SA), 2:10pm (EDT)

You couldn't get much happier if you were a Geelong fan. The first sight of silverwhere in 43 years has brought a new lease of life to the Cattery, and on the balance of that momentum, Brisbane shouldn't pose too many problems.

The only way Brisbane can find victory is if the 'enigmas' of Jared Brennan, Daniel Bradshaw and Jason Akermanis all bring their A-game to Skilled Stadium. The chances of that happening are not impossible, so the Cats will need to stay focused.

Geelong by 19 points.

SATURDAY NIGHT

Essendon vs Sydney
Telstra Dome, Melbourne
4:10pm (WA), 6:40pm (SA), 7:10pm (EDT)

Sydney have been all over the shop in the pre-season, but a last-ditch win against St Kilda will have restored some confidence prior to their match against a team that has been prepared by Kevin Sheedy to hit the ground running.

It's the sort of game that Sheedy loves - a new season to prove the doubters wrong, and a new reigning premier to bring down a notch. At full strength, the Bombers can pull it together.

Essendon by 4 points.

Port Adelaide vs Kangaroos
AAMI Stadium, Adelaide
4:40pm (WA), 7:10pm (SA), 7:40pm (EDT)

The 'new generation' of Alberton is being meticulously groomed by Port coach Mark Williams, and they get the chance to show their development in what will be a tightly contested match against the Kangaroos.

Dean Laidely's outfit are known for their fighting qualities, and if the pre-season is anything to go by, rookie defender Joshua Gibson might be a new star. But a trip to Adelaide is never easy, and even without skipper Warren Tredrea, the Power will find a way to win.

Port Adelaide by 6 points.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON

Hawthorn vs Fremantle
Aurora Stadium, Launceston
11:10am (WA), 12:40pm (SA), 1:10pm (EST)

Just where Fremantle are headed in 2006 is, like 2003, 2004 and 2005, anyone's guess. One must hope that Chris Connelly's faboulous collection of talent can finally be galvinised into a cohesive team, or they will struggle to make the finals.

Hawthorn are certainly on the way up, but whether they are quite at the Dockers' level remains to be seen. At the moment, you'd have to say not. Maybe that will change by the end of the year.

Fremantle by 16 points.

SUNDAY EVENING

Melbourne vs Carlton
Telstra Dome, Melbourne
3:10pm (WA), 4:40pm (SA), 5:10pm (EST)

Melbourne finally broke their yo-yo streak last year, but only just. They started with a bang in 2005 and Cameron Bruce loomed as the competition's best player, but that's a long time ago now. By the same token, Carlton had just come off a pre-season cup victory.

And while Melbourne are still considered a genuine finals threat, Carlton are not, and that's surely got to be a strong pointer toward a comfortable Demon victory.

Melbourne by 45 points

MONDAY NIGHT

Collingwood vs Adelaide
Telstra Dome, Melbourne
5:10pm (WA), 6:40pm (SA), 7:10pm (EST)

Collingwood has been buzzing all pre-season about what 2006 holds. Listen to any of Magpie faithful talk long enough, and you'd swear they've already made room for a 17th premiership in the trophy cabinet at the Lexus Centre.

In reality, if Magpie fans want to get a look at a premiership contender, they ought to make the journey out to the Telstra Dome on Monday. Neil Craig and his troopers are no longer anonymous, and it will take everything in Anthony Rocca's power - or right boot - to cause an upset.

Adelaide by 33 points.

Until next week, happy punting!

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