Derby Day Preview

Derby Day is always the best day of the Spring Racing Carnival, and last year punters warmed to the big day in their droves – more than 110,000 of them.

This year, the threat of rain will keep many of them away, but if the crowd nudges six figures, it would be a great result for the Victoria Racing Club. Indeed, hopefully the public does come out because the card is stacked full of quality group races, with the Victoria Derby looking like a beauty.

Graeme Rogerson got it right when he jumped up and down about Savabeel, but I’m not sure his enthusiasm for Duelled is quite the same. It’s going to run a huge race today but Pendragon has been set for this for a long time and is just doing everything right.

His archrival from Caulfield in the Norman Robinson was Headturner, who looks every bit as good a chance over the 2500m. Even Replicator wasn’t disgraced in running third, but Pendragon does look a somewhat better chance.

However, he is a bit short with the bookies and if you’re looking for value, there is plenty. With a bit of luck, Manton, at $15, could do the job here. He was unlucky against Duelled at Moonee Valley last start and with win-happy apprentice Blake Shinn on board, a little dabble could bring a handsome return. His full-brother, Blackfriars, won the Derby in 1999 so breeding isn’t a query.

I’ll stick with Pendragon simply because – despite what GA Rogerson says – Bart Cummings has this one as ripe and ready as any in the field. In a Derby, you need to be tough. It’s not really a suitable distance for 3YO horses, so only the strongest can survive.

Victoria Derby tips: Pendragon, Duelled, Headturner.

Sebastian’s tips for the rest of the card:

Race 1: Roubechon, Deregulate, Letter Of Intent.

Roubechon is still a very lightly raced horse, but looks a quality gelding and should have enough class here, despite giving away a handy weight allowance to his biggest threat, Deregulate.

Race 2: Queen Of The Hill, Jet Spur, Stratum.

She’s massive in size and massive in heart – Queen Of The Hill just doesn’t give up and her win last start showed her immense spirit. Jet Spur and Stratum are potentially better horses, but with both lugging 60kg against the Queen’s 54.5kg, she looks the pick of the bunch.

Race 3: Mr Celebrity, Confectioner, Dizelle.

Toss a coin for first and throw in whoever you like for third. Confectioner is the class horse of the field, with Mr Celebrity the up-and-coming star. Confectioner did win the Craiglee Stakes here a few months back, but did he peak too early? Mr Celebrity’s Geelong Cup run shows he’s peaking right now.

Race 4: Astonomia, Serenade Rose, Empress Lilly.

Astronomia slaughtered the field with a powerful run at Caulfield a fortnight ago, but Serenade Rose and Empress Lily have big claims and good form to boot. However, the ‘Astro’ was just too impressive last start to overlook.

Race 5: Lotteria, Miss Potential, Shania Dane.

Miss Potential won this race last year by holding star filly Alinghi, but it’s Lotteria who makes a stronger claim after a brave second to Makybe Diva in the Cox Plate. Only query might be that last week took a lot of energy from the tank, while Miss Potential will be fitter and faster.

Race 7: Lad Of The Manor, Activation, Fields Of Omagh.

The McKinnon Stakes is one of the nation’s best WFA races, and rarely does a donkey find the money here. Lad Of The Manor just couldn’t get the right run last week and didn’t put in a massive effort likes Fields Of Omagh, who might not have the energy to beat this field.

Race 8: Takeover Target, Falkirk, Cape Of Good Hope.

Takeover Target is one of the best sprinters on his day – he hasn’t won a race since his victory in this race last year, but everything is finally going his way. He showed reasonable form before a spell, and returns to his favoured track at his pet distance and races superbly when resuming. Falkirk, Cape of Good Hope, Gonski and Barely A Moment all have a case to be made.

Race 9: Recapitalize, Volitant, Eltonjon.

Recapitalize will have to overcome a wide barrier, but has the class to smash all of these if he can get the right run in the long straight. If that run isn’t forthcoming, Volitant has the form, Eltonjon has the talent, so it might come down to the weather.

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