HORSE RACING

Nic Evans and his early Cup thoughts.

CONTENDERS

I spent a bit of time this week analyzing the weights for both the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups and have pinpointed a few horses that are in ideal measurement.

The current form of Pompeii Ruler in the WFA has taken most aback. He is exceptional talent and is within reach of 51.5 kilos required, though needs to shed six kilos.

Trainer Mick Price has indicated Pompeii Ruler may not start in the Caulfield Cup, instead waiting to be let loose on the Cox Plate.

Pompeii Ruler has unlimited potential and personally, if I were training him, he’d be a starter in every feature race. However, as Mick Price would say, “I don’t train horses.”

Another horse I like the look of and doing very well in the weights is Men at Work, trained by John O’Shea. The handicapper, who may bypass the Sydney Metropolitan races, has been allocated just 50.5kgs, which is 7.5kgs below WFA standard.

This has left O'Shea with an interesting option and run him in Melbourne instead.

Last year, ‘Men at Work’ was very unlucky to finish second to ‘On A Jeune’ in the Geelong Cup. On A Jeune went on to run a gallant second behind the mighty mare Makybe Diva in the Melbourne Cup.

Therefore, that form line stacks up quite well in hindsight. Earlier this year in Sydney, Men at Work had a light campaign and ran a terrific race behind Eremein, who finished fourth in the BMW WFA race over 2400m.

Both, in my opinion, are genuine chances.

Lee Freedman has quite a few aspirants nominated, none better though, than dual Oaks winner, Serenade Rose. Anyone who saw her wins would tell you she would be the one to beat, come Caulfield Cup day.

Since then though, she has only stepped out twice. In the Liston she was hampered for room in the straight and in the Craiglee Stakes she missed the jump. Turning for home she made little ground and was doing her best work at the finish by grinding away.

Which suggested to me she has been trained to be an out an out stayer this campaign.

Regardless of her having to carry 52.5 kilos, this classy mare is still a top hope and is too good to dismiss.

Trainer John Hawkes has two major chances in the Caulfield Cup this year.

AJC Derby winner, and VRC Derby third placegetter, Headturner. A stablemate to defending Caulfield winner Railings, Headturner has 54kgs as opposed to Railings, who has been given just 55.5kgs.

Truly, he has got in light for this years race. Since weights were released last year, he won the 2400m Metropolitan and Caulfield Cup. It has intrigued me to have a horse of his class with just 55.5kgs.

Sure, he didn't have a terrific Autumn but his run in the Australian Cup was admirable.

Headturner on the other hand has not missed the handicapper and might be paying for his dominant win in the AJC Derby, defeating subsequent SA Derby winner, Testifiable.

Testifiable has 52kgs for the Caulfield Cup. He too was dominant in Adelaide winning their Derby, and he was ultra impressive too. He may be more a genuine 3200m Melbourne Cup hope.

Reluctant to leave any out in both Cups by the same token. All three have genuine winning hopes.

ROUGHIES

As per usual their are a plenty of hopefuls with rough chances being set for the race, which is a genuine dream of any owner to run their horse in the Caulfield and Melbourne Cups.

Couples that I have earmarked as potential Melbourne Cup candidates are not even partially qualified as yet, and will really be relying on what they do this campaign.

There is real value, if you can forecast that far down the track.

Therefore, for all you small punters out there I hope to predict you something that is right out of left field and probably around a $200 chance!

Cliff Brown is no stranger to Melbourne Cups he has horses placed in them and although has had a very dry period of top flight horses,

I really like his four-year-old mare Pavlova, a name that is as synonymous to Australians for a dish, but this girl has better things in store for her in the not too distant future.

Hopefully a run in the Melbourne Cup but I don't want to write up too much about her.

She has won just the one race and albeit at Ipswich, she then went on to run a very strong race in the QLD Oaks behind Allow. An absolute postage stamp at 48kgs but I like her chances.

Another roughie who you may consider is not exactly a roughie but when Gai Waterhouse brings any runner to Melbourne we can only hope.

Aqua D'amore who is not at big odds has something I like,and that is she handles this way of going better than clockwise. She is quoted around $25s and with 52.5kgs to contend with, but, may just drift out in price come the time of the race.

Unlike Pavlova, she is fully qualified and barring bad luck she will run in the Caulfield Cup on the 21st of October. So, there you have my early thoughts on the Cups.

In coming weeks I will re-assess the form closer to the race and update the key chances.

We can only hope that whatever we back at this time of the year is safe and well and indeed gives all of us a run for our money.

INTERNATIONALS

In one word, Yeats. If he should arrive for our great race, he would win.

However, as astute as Aiden O'Brien is, I would not risk him to travel here. He is too valuable to him and the entire Coolmore Stud.

This wonderful looking entire would win with a leg in the air, that’s how good he is. Before he won the Goodwood 3200m Handicap earlier this year, I declared him a moral in that particular race.

Publicly declaring it on SEN 1116 Radio in Melbourne. At the time even the host of the program, mocked my selection. It seems they were awaiting another chapter to be written, to the fairytale of another Irish galloper.

2002 Melbourne Cup winner Media Puzzle, Sadly it wasn't.

The ease of Yeats win was deafened by the horrifying images of watching 2002 Melbourne Cup winner, Media Puzzle, having to pull up in the race and tragically be put down. Yeats may well be something bigger and better than any horse ever being sent here.

I doubt he will arrive. Nevertheless, time is of an essence.

Yeats is running this weekend in the Irish St.Leger at the Curragh. If he were to come over he would need to be placed into quarantine immediately following the race this Saturday.

Yeats is the BEST STAYER going around at the moment, and when I say BEST, Best, Worldwide. Time will tell if the world agrees with me.

Good luck!

A regular on the airwaves on Melbourne's SEN 1116am and contributor for FutureSports, Nic Evans contributes to SportsAustralia.com each Friday with his guide to the best bets for the weekend.